Mike Shatzkin is a future Prognostication Hall of Famer but by his own admission he tapped a weak grounder to shortstop when he predicted that the iPad wouldn’t not have an “immediate significant impact on ebook sales.” In fact, the impact was nothing short of explosive.  For a couple of publishers, e-book sales tripled or even quadrupled after the Apple introduced its device.

Shatzkin’s prediction had by no means been crackpot. Though he knew the iPad would sell big time (it ended up selling 1 million units in a few weeks after launch), like so many of us he figured its biggest use would be videos and games, not reading. He was also skeptical that a lot of people would want to read on a pinkie-busting 1.5 pound iPad (Kindle weights 10 ounces).

How wrong can a prophet be? “I was proved wrong in less than a month,” confesses Shatzkin in a recent posting.  “Apparently if we get slightly larger and portable screens into people’s hands, they want to read books on them.” And consumers obviously were willing to sacrifice their pinkies to be early adopters of the iPad.

It’s okay, Mike. Your .299 batting average still puts you in MVP contention.

Richard Curtis