Are you all predictioned out? The end of the decade has triggered a prognostication glut, to which I’m afraid we have added (see Book Publishing 10 Years in the Future). Still, with such brilliant oracles as Michael Cairns, Martyn Daniels, Mike Shatzkin, Ted Treanor and Joe Wikert casting their auguries it’s hard to ignore well articulated visions of publishing’s future. And now comes Robert S. Miller, President and Publisher of HarperStudio, with some of the most cogent we’ve read, including the scary prediction that the core group of six publishing titans dominating trade book publishing (Random House, Hachette, Pearson, HarperCollins, Macmillan and Simon & Schuster) could shrink to three in the next five years.

In a piece entitled It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times posted on the HarperStudio website, Miller not only projects trends but counter trends. Some might say that playing it safe and having it both ways is standard operating procedure for prophets, but when you analyze each pairing you’ll realize that the future could not only go either way, it could actually go both ways at the same time. Here’s the short versions of Miller’s key predictions:

• Trend: The large publishing houses will continue to reduce overhead as profits shrink in the years ahead.
• Counter trend: Publishers will be looking for mergers and acquisitions to compensate for those shrinking profits. The Big Six could be the Big Three within five years.
• Trend: These companies will continue to focus more resources on fewer titles…Title count at the largest houses could drop by as much as fifty percent over the next five years.
• Counter trend: Self-publishing will grow exponentially.
• Trend: In terms of advances, the amounts paid for brand-names will continue to increase, with seven-figure or eight-figure acquisitions commonplace among authors with established track records.
• Counter trend: The six-figure advance…will become a rare species within the decade.
• Trend: Within five years, half of all reading will be done electronically.
• Counter trend: There will be a resurgence of appreciation for well-designed physical books, as keepsakes, gifts, etc
• Trend: As more consumers become e-book readers, demand will increase for the availability of e-books simultaneously with p-books.
• Counter trend: Within five years, it will be common practice to give every p-book purchaser a “free” e-book version of that book at time of purchase.
• Trend: Fewer and fewer books will be sold to publishers at “auction,” and that practice will disappear completely within five years.
• Counter trend: Instead of auctions for the highest advance, there will be auctions in which a basic advance is established by the agent, with the auction winner being the publisher who bids the most in marketing committed to the book.
• Trend: The agent of the future will become more of a business manager who handles every aspect of an author’s career.
• Counter trend: Publishers will create free-standing departments whose services can be purchased a la carte by authors.
• Trend: As the Boomers lose their eyesight and their children become teenagers, demographics will favor books for young adults over books for adults.
• Counter trend: While auctions and advances diminish for adult titles, they could heat up for young adult material as publishers bet big in search of the next Stephenie Meyer.

It’s definitely worth your time to read these in depth.

Richard Curtis