Last week Amazon flew a dozen top New York book agents to Seattle. The purpose was to debrief their attitudes towards e-books in general and Kindle in particular. After reading an account of the meetings and festivities, I did some rough calculations and figure Amazon spent upwards of $10,000 to pick those splendid brains. I estimated $600 per agent for round trip airfare, $150 for hotel accommodations, and $200 for food and incidentals. All multiplied by twelve.

I could have saved Amazon all that money. I’ve known for ten years what’s been holding agents back from plunging into e-book pool, and in fact I can tell it to you in one word: advances. The agents have been waiting for something they can identify with the traditional business model. And advances are as traditional as Thanksgiving turkeys.

Who can blame the agents for being standoffish? Picture a macher like Lynn Nesbit or Bob Gottlieb calling an author to say “I have great news for you! I’ve made a deal for e-book rights to your new book plus half a dozen of your old ones!” And you say “Great! What are they paying?” And they say “Um, nothing, actually.” Oh, that’s really going to bind them to their clients!

The truth is that up to now the infant business could not afford advances. As Mike Shatzkin brilliantly pointed out in a speech at last spring’s BEA, the digital revolution has been costly for publishers confronting a tear-down of an infrastructure based on something tangible and replacing it with a virtual one.

However, now that the old indusry is getting with the program and accepting the need to heavily reinvest, we will see a transition into that most familiar of publishing concepts, the advance against royalties.

But that raises an interesting question: who exactly is going to be paying these advances? Because e-rights have been close to worthless for agents who have battened for decades on six- and seven-digit deals (even a few for eight digits), they have simply thrown the e-rights into their deals with publishers for no extra front-money. There are signs however that independent e-book houses are starting to offer advances. When that becomes more of a rule than an exception, major publishers will be forced to compete.

And if they decline to compete? Then you will see agents pushing to split e-book rights away from the basic rights package they negotiate with publishers, and e-book will take its place as a reserved right like movie and audio. In fact, audio offers a perfect parallel: at the beginning of the audio revolution, authors and their agents tossed audio rights into a book deal for nothing. Who cared about audio? But in time those rights became so valuable – they are now a billion dollar business – that, today, no self-respecting agent would think of including audio rights in a deal unless the publisher was prepared to sweeten the advance.

Is this the message that the Magnificent Dozen communicated to their Seattle hosts? I hope so. There’s a ton of great material being held off the market by agents waiting to hear that one delicious word that will make them open their gates.

Richard Curtis