Forrester Research, the technology and market research company, has issued a report that “the eBook and eReader market has now hit a point where it is ready to break out of its niche and become a mainstream phenomenon.” In EReader and EBook Market Ready for Growth. ReadWriteWeb’s Frederic Lardinois describes a report by Forrester’s Sarah Rotman Epps that at first there was skepticism that e-books would attract more than “a small number of book-loving early adopters,” but Forrester acknowledges it “underestimated the fact that consumers would fall in love with the Kindle’s one-step shopping system and the immediate gratification of buying books in the Kindle store.”

Another reason for the upsurge is that “Today’s consumers have embraced mobile, on-the-go media consumption thanks to the prevalence of MP3 players and handheld video games.”

“Forrester also predicts that the eReader market will soon expand beyond books,” writes Lardinois, “especially once eInk technology becomes more mature and maybe even allows for color reproductions. Forrester’s Sarah Rotman Epps expects that newspapers, magazines, comics, and business and personal documents will also soon become more important, especially as other vendors besides Amazon start to produce more compelling devices and user experiences.”

That last sentence is worth rereading, implying as it does that the Kindle may be regarded as somewhat less than compelling. We know that a new generation of e-reading devices, including some with color screens, is slouching to be born, and Kindle could well lose its lustre despite the huge advantage it currently enjoys. This is reflected in the caution displayed by universities. Given the huge capital outlay and technological commitment involved in adopting and adapting a computer system, schools are sitting on the sideline waiting to see which platform and device wins the school sweepstakes. Even the recently released larger Kindle model may prove inadequate compared to netbooks and tablets that we have predicted will eventually dominate the educational marketplace. Says Lardinois:

The new Kindle DX is geared towards the textbook market, but Forrester warns that universities will be slow to adopt the technology. The schools that Forrester talked to had no plans to encourage students to use the Kindle and the current pilot project only involves a small number of students (50 at Pace, for example). Of course, this is also a classic chicken and egg problem. Textbook publishers will look at the adoption of the Kindle in schools and are unlikely to invest heavily in this technology unless they see a growing market for their content, while students are unlikely to show interest in eReaders unless all of their textbooks are available in this format.

RC