The one sector of the US economy that has managed to keep its head above the waters swirling down the drain is technology – at least until now. But – what made Silicon Valley think that the slowdown affecting every other business would not eventually seep down to the consumers of expensive cameras, flat screen TVs, and home computers?

An article by Ashlee Vance in the New York Times plays up just how dire things are, citing warnings from such major players as Intel and Cisco Systems that revenues are not just retreating, but “plummeting at rates last seen in 2001.” “We have never seen anything like this in history,” Vance quotes software manufacturer William T. Coleman III. Even Google, the industry’s flagship, has recently experienced a 16% drop in its shares and is acknowledging there may be some belt-tightening ahead.

One segment of the technology sector that has performed brilliantly is e-books. A glance at the industry’s bar chart for the last three or four years shows a dizzying double-digit annual growth rate. Can we hope that e-books might escape the gravitational pull of recession that is bringing everyone else down to earth with a thud? Or are we too in denial?

I vote for denial. Or call it wishful thinking.

The dynamics and economics of e-books have a different feel to them. The technology required to support e-books is modest compared to, say, video games. You don’t have to buy new equipment or even update the old. The desktop, laptop, PDA or cell phone you already own are fine for downloading e-books. They’re priced reasonably, and the pleasure of a book can last for weeks. You don’t have to buy a Kindle or Sony EReader, but if a certain someone wants to buy one for you for the holidays, that certainly won’t bust your family’s budget.

Experience in prior recessions and even The Great Depression is that books are one of the most modestly priced of pastimes. Indeed, a number of today’s great publishing companies were launched during the Depression. Though it’s true that in bad times discretionary purchases suffer, compared to dinner out and a movie a book is a bargain, and an e-book an even bigger one.

Let’s hope I’m right.

– Richard Curtis